High Fasting Plasma Glucose Mortality Effect: A Comparative Risk Assessment in 25–64 Years Old Iranian Population

Abstract

Background: High fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is one of the main leading risk factors of ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and chronic kidney diseases (CKDs). We estimated population attributable fraction (PAF) and attributed death of these fatal outcomes of high FPG at national and subnational levels in 25–64 years old Iranian adult.

Methods: We used national and subnational data of the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey for exposure to risk factors in 2005 and 2011 among Iranian adults of 25–64 years old. For estimating the attributed death, using the death registration system data of Iran, we multiply the cause-specifi c PAFs by the number of outcome-specifi c deaths.

Results: In Iran, high FPG was responsible for about 31% of attributed total deaths of IHD, stroke, and CKD in 2011. The related attributed deaths had increased from 2005 to 2011. In females, the PAFs for the effect of high FPG on IHD, stroke, and CKD were higher in 2011 than 2005 in all age groups. In males, this increase has occurred in over 45 years old. The highest PAFs of high FPG outcomes mostly related to central provinces of Iran. The central region of Iran had the highest and the southeast of the country had the lowest levels of attributed deaths.

Conclusions: Considering the global 25 × 25 targets for noncommunicable disease mortality reduction, high FPG as a leading risk factor of fatal outcomes should be more targeted through the dietary, behavioral, and pharmacological interventions in Iran.

Keywords: Comparative risk assessment, high fasting plasma glucose, Iran, mortality