Cancer Incidence and Prevalence in Isfahan: Application of Mortality Data to Estimates and Projects for the Period 2001‑2015

Abstract

Background: The aim of this study was to show up‑to‑date estimates of incidence and prevalence in Isfahan for all cancers, except non‑melanoma skin cancer over the period 2001‑2010 to provide projections up to 2015, based on a statistical method that uses mortality and cancer patients’ survival data.

Methods: Mortality data in Isfahan province were collected from various sources such as hospitals, medical forensic, cemetery, and health centers. In addition, population data by sex, age, location, and calendar year in the period of 2001‑2010 were acquired from the Statistical Center of Iran. Relative survival probabilities for all cancers combined and for selected specific cancers were estimated based on observed cancer death and expected mortality data. Incidence and prevalence estimates were computed with Mortality‑incidence Analysis Model (MIAMOD) method.

Results: The estimated age‑standardized cancer incidence rate had higher increase rate for urban females than for males. Also, the number of prevalent cancers was higher among females, which was mostly due to better cancer survival rates in women. Age‑adjusted incidence was estimated to increase by 6.9 and 8.7 per 100000 annually, between 2001 and 2015, in males and females, respectively. The prevalence is to increase by 24 and 40 and mortality by 2.8 and 2.5 per 100000 between 2001 and 2015.

Conclusion: The present study does not only shows the incidence and prevalence estimates of all cancers combined, but also gives information about cancer burden, which can be used as a bases for planning healthcare management and allocating recourses in public health.

Key words: Cancer, incidence, mortality, prevalence, relative survival